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台股分析2015.8.14~選對個股、反敗為勝!

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台股今天小跌6.1點,成交量738.99E,OTC則小跌0.03%,成交量140.27E,自筆者8/5舉辦線上講座以來,台股開始進入築底狀態,而有參加8/13線上講座的投資朋友們也知道,對於目前正開始築底的大盤將會出現個股的股價調整期,而這兩場講座主要便是因應目前台股的情勢而加開的,這是筆者希望能幫助投資朋友們在這一波股市大跌的過程之中,能夠加速反敗為勝所提供的因時制宜的操作模式,而這一路大盤的崩跌筆者每每也在最適當的轉折點位提醒大家要閃、要買,相信這都是一直以來有關注我們部落格的投資朋友們可以親眼見證的。


問題來了,不管筆者就算再神準,相信多數的投資朋友們的交易仍是依然顧我的依照自己認為的市場在進出,而根據筆者跟一些券商的主管們探詢結果,這一波的投資人用現股操作的平均資產縮水三成應該是跑不掉的,但如果是融資擴充信用的賠光清零的也大有人在,而這一波的大跌1800點行情也是從上一波美國次貸危機之後跌幅最慘烈的一波,現在多數的投資人應該可分為兩種,一是賠光了未來即便股市大漲千點跟他一點也沒關係,另一種是現股投資人現在最想的應該是如何能把這波賠掉的錢賺回來才是。


投資朋友們應該要有一個基本的概念,一個國家的大盤指數或是一檔個股若是跌幅過大時,它通常便會出現兩種狀況,一是未來反彈時需面對層層賣壓,二是正因為如此所以多數股票需經過一段不短的時間做打底的動作,若是把這樣的觀念換成投資人應該應對的模式就會變成多數的股票即便跌深後出現反彈通常也不可能一路的上漲,多半就會變成先反彈一波之後在拉回打第二隻甚至是第三隻腳,或是橫盤整理一段時間,所以聰明的投資人就要懂得如何掌握這樣模式來制定一套應對的方式,若是這個應對方式做的好,很有可能大盤或是個股都還在打底,投資人的整體資產就已經回來二、三成甚至開始獲利了,那未來大盤若是上漲了千點,你才會成為這波大盤大跌之下的贏家不是嗎?


當然這市場上更一定會有少數的高手不但避開了整波大盤大幅的回檔,更在中間幾次重要的短線轉折中賺到錢,不管是當沖也好、短線交易也好,所以這些少數的高手面對到大盤大跌1800點的行情不但不像一般人的悲觀而應是無比的開心,因為指數的大跌替他們創造出未來又有許多好股票能大漲三成、五成甚至一倍的資產,面對同樣的行情每種人的心態與資產的變化卻是截然不同的,這就是投資的魅力所在,這也是筆者用心創立小學堂所希望達到的一項重要的目標。


台股在今天MSCI季度調整中一反多數人的預期出現雙降的結果,雖然台股在亞洲不含日本及新興市場仍是被雙降,但卻意外出現全球市場被調升的狀況,話雖說這是一般人覺得非常的意外,但相信先前有參加過筆者對於台股漲跌幅調升到10%講座的投資朋友們,現在大家應該可以慢慢開始體會筆者當初所說的,大家也可以慢慢發現筆者總是能把一般人的看法用更不同的角度去看待去解釋,結果我們的看法幾乎都會在未來慢慢應證出我們是對的。


OK!下週一原則台股有蠻大機會收出中長紅走勢,另外我們的LINE實體紀律操作班報名到8/23日為止,僅此次一班不會再開設了。
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