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台股分析2015.9.4~8000點震盪整理

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大盤今日下跌95.35點,成交量830.34E,今日大盤如同早上筆者跟學員所說最好能收黑在8000點附近震盪即可,果不其然收盤居然剛剛好收在8000點整數關卡,雖然今天大盤跌幅不算小,許多個股也因漲多出現很明顯的法人短線獲利了結的跡象,但一來政府堅守8000的決心是不容忽視、二來立法院即將在新的會期非常有機會通過洪秀柱版的證所稅修正版,這個版本如果先前有聽過筆者在8/21台股分析完整版的講座就會瞭解到洪的這個版本對於台股的大盤將是一個非常重要的利多,所以對於台股未來的中長線確時是很重要的一項利多措施。

前陣子有投資朋友們在問筆者關於平盤之下不能放空的看法,筆者趁這今天假日剛好有空跟大家聊聊筆者的看法,基本上筆者是反對這項措施的,筆者認為這項措失不但對於散戶不利反而是斷決了散戶避險的機會,因為外資主要透過銀行與壽險公司靠借券來放空個股,成本低廉,而政府一開始將融券保證金從90%調高到120%就已經造成了散戶避險的成本提高了,現在又禁止平盤以下不準放空,不就是告訴散戶你連避險機會都沒有,你要放空就只能空平盤以上的,但當股市大跌時,個股還能維持紅盤的股票真的給它空下去被修理的機會是相對大很多的,所以關於禁止平盤之下放空的政策筆者認為它除了阻斷了散戶避險的功能之外,將來還會造成散戶大量去放空逆勢上漲的個股,被軋空的機率是大很多的,所以基本上筆者是蠻反對這政策的。

今日台股雖大跌又碰上週五歐美股市也大跌,但筆者認為法人今日的獲利了結是屬於短期現像,下週一開低走高,週線收紅的機會還是相對高的,所以投資朋友們其實還是專注於股票的選擇與操作即可,而我們在9/20所將舉辦的2014年Q4選股集目前僅剩7個名額,有想要參加的可能要盡快了喔!因為20個名額額滿就截止了。
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